LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, and DAIRY: The forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month, as higher beef, pork, and broiler forecasts are partly offset by lower turkey. Beef is raised for the second half with higher expected slaughter as well as higher carcass weights for the period. Pork for the third quarter is raised on a higher-than-expected slaughter; no change is made to the fourth-quarter forecast.

Broiler production is raised on current slaughter data and higher eggs set and chicks placed. Turkey is lowered, with an increase in the third quarter more than offset by a reduction in the fourth quarter due in part to recent Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) discoveries. Egg production is lowered from last month on recent hatchery data and recent HPAI discoveries.

For 2023, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised on higher beef and broiler production. Beef is raised on higher expected placements in late 2022 which will be marketed in the first half of 2023. Broiler production is raised on expected growth in eggs set and chicks placed during the year. Pork is lowered on expected farrowing and modest growth in pigs per litter. Turkey is lowered slightly for the first two quarters. Egg production is raised, with a raised second half forecast more than offsetting a reduction in first half production.

Beef imports for 2022 are lowered on slower third quarter exports. Exports are raised on the current pace of trade in the third quarter but the forecast for the fourth quarter is unchanged. Beef imports for 2023 are raised. 2023 exports are forecast higher on expectations of firm demand in a number of Asian markets. Pork imports and exports are lowered for 2022 on recent data.

For 2023, pork exports are lowered on tighter domestic supplies and weaker demand in several markets. Broiler export forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are unchanged. Turkey exports are lowered for 2022 but raised for 2023.

Cattle price forecasts for 2022 are raised on current strength in packer demand, but forecasts for 2023 are unchanged. The 2022 hog price forecast is lowered on recent prices, and 2023 prices are also lowered on weaker expected demand and competition from increased broiler supplies.

Broiler price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are lowered on higher forecast production. Turkey price forecasts for both 2022 and 2023 are raised with lowered production forecasts. Egg price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are raised on recent prices and expectations of continued firm demand.

The milk production forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are raised from last month. The cow inventory is raised reflecting a more rapid pace of expansion in late 2022 and the first half of 2023. Output-per-cow is raised for the remainder of 2022 and into the first part of 2023.

Fat and skim-solids basis imports for 2022 are raised, largely driven by recent trade data and higher expected imports of cheese and a number of other products; the skim imports increase also reflects strong milk protein concentrate and casein imports.

Forecasts for 2023 imports for both bases are also raised largely on stronger imports of butter. Exports for both years are raised on expectations of stronger whey, lactose, and butterfat product exports. However, export growth in skim milk powder is expected to be slower in 2022.

For 2022, forecasts for butter and cheese prices are raised on current price strength, but nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are lowered. Both Class III and Class IV prices are raised, reflecting the higher butter and cheese prices respectively.

For 2023, price forecasts for butter and cheese are raised while the NDM prices is lower.

The Class III price is raised on higher cheese and Class IV price forecast is raised as the higher butter price more than offsets the lower expected NDM price. The 2022 all milk price forecast is raised to $25.60 per cwt and the 2023 all milk price is raised to $22.90 per cwt.